Financiële belasting
’t Lijkt me dat Sarko & Merkel wel willen: France,
Germany to Propose Financial Transaction Tax: Sarkozy – France and
Germany in September will propose a tax on financial transactions to raise
money for development projects, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in
Paris.
En ook andere EU-politici lijken er voor te voelen: “European
Union to push for financial transaction tax at G20 – The European Union
will push for the adoption of a financial transaction tax at a summit of the
world’s 20 biggest economies, the G20, in November, European Commission
President Jose Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday. “
Dit waren herhalingen van eerdere uitspraken. En dus kan je de normale
reacties verwachten, banken zijn tegen. Deze discussie zal nog wel even
aanhouden : “Experts
disagree on the effects of a financial transaction tax”

Vooral de impact op high frequency trading is een heet hangijzer:
“High-frequency trading would be particularly hard-hit – The tax is unlikely
to have a noticeable effect on long-term investors who regroup their assets
only once or twice a year. For speculators, however, it’s different story.
The tax would especially hurt those engaged in "high frequency trading"
supported by computer systems. "In high frequency trading, trading
software puts out orders in a split second," Gerke said, adding that
this form of trading would be brought to a standstill if a financial
transaction tax were introduced.
And that’s where experts start to disagree, with neither side able to back up
their views scientifically, according to Gerke. "Some argue that by
doing away with high frequency trading, important liquidity would be lost to
the market," he said. "But others argue that it would simply
straighten out the markets’ daily fluctuations a bit."”

Dreigen met bankenvlucht
De financiële spelers zijn niet blij met dit soort belastingen. Eigenlijk
zijn ze sowieso niet dol op belastingen, maar goed. Als er plannen zijn om
belastingen en allerle storende nieuwe regels in te voeren, dan gebruiken ze
altijd één argument om de politiek te overtuigen om dat niet te doen: dan
gaan ze weg.

Zo ook nu: “London
the Biggest Loser as Banks Look to Book Trades Overseas – Banks in
Europe are exploring ways to cut costs by routing more of their trades and
other business through overseas subsidiaries, a plan that may shift tax
revenue away from London and loosen European regulators’ influence over the
lenders. Nomura Holdings Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS AG are among
lenders preparing plans to book as much business as possible through legal
entities in jurisdictions where tax rates are lower and rules on capital and
liquidity are less onerous, the banks and lawyers and accountants working
with them say. “[…]
Such a move would hurt traditional hubs such as London because assets are
treated for tax and regulatory purposes in the country where they are
booked. It would also allow banks to sidestep the U.K. bank levy, introduced
last year to raise 2.5 billion pounds from lenders operating in Britain, as
well as any financial transaction tax imposed by the European Union. Lenders
aren’t required to publish which entities they book their assets through
globally”.

Broker ICAP kwam anderhalve week ook al met een vluchtplan: “ICAP
will exit UK over transaction tax, financial firms could relocate to
Singapore – Broking giant ICAP will leave the United Kingdom if the
European Union endorses Franco-German plans for a tax on financial
transactions.
"Companies like ICAP will simply move elsewhere outside the EU if Nicolas
Sarkozy and Angela Merkel push ahead with this silly tax," ICAP chief
executive Michael Spencer was quoted as saying in the Independent on Sunday
newspaper yesterday.
Mr Spencer said that financial firms would relocate to New York and Singapore
if such a tax came true. "This is another cynical threat by Sarkozy who
knows this tax would overwhelmingly hit London as this is where trillions of
dollars are traded each day," Mr Spencer said. "It could only work
if adopted globally.

Miljardengat bankbuffers
Het zijn niet allen de banken en brokers in London die probreren de regels te
keren. Ook in de VS zijn ze goed bezig – zie de clip van het meest serieuze
nieuwsprogramma in de VS, the Daily Show over “The
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act”
Het gaat natuurlijk allemaal om geld. Als er een soort uniforme
accountingregels komen, bijvoorbeeld over de waardering van Griekse
obligaties (dhr Hoogervorst begon er al over: (“Scherpe
kritiek IASB op afschrijvingen Grieks staatspapier door banken en
verzekeraars”) dan zullen er hier en daar wat lijken uit de kast komen.

De hamvraag: ‘Kost dat?’ Nou een schatting die vanochtend wat aandacht krijgt
is deze: “IMF
sees 200 billion euro capital gap at European banks – The International
Monetary Fund has estimated European banks could face a capital shortfall of
200 billion euros, a European source said on Wednesday.
The figure has prompted a fierce response from European officials who said the
analysis was misleading, according to the Financial Times. The newspaper,
citing two officials, said the 200 billion euro figure was one estimate of
the impact of marking sovereign bonds to market.”

Transparantie slecht?
Dit is wel een aardige en orginele reactie op de roep om een strenger
keurslijf van de banken: “More
Accounting Transparency May Distort Markets - It is now believed that in
the years preceding the recent financial turmoil, banks took excessive risks
that weren’t disclosed, and regulators were only able to intervene after
widespread panic had brought the system to its knees.
More transparency, it is argued, could have allowed the market to discipline
such excessive risk-taking behavior. Yet there is evidence that, in many
situations, greater disclosure may not be good corporate governance or even
desirable.”

Wat ik mis in het verhaal is de impact van leverage op de markten. Daarom ben
ik nog niet 100 procent overtuigd om de boel maar bij het oude te laten.

Terug in september
Bovenstaande zijn de laatste ontwikkelingen in een al langer bestaande trend
en er zijn dan ook veel rapporten met beleggingsconsequenties over
verschenen. De twee die vandaag in de belangstelling staan zijn deze: “25
Signs That The Financial World Is About To Hit The Big Red Panic Button
- Most of the worst financial panics in history have happened in the fall.
Just recall what happened in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Well, September 2011 is
about to begin and there are all kinds of signs that the financial world is
about to hit the big red panic button”
en “Goldman
Takes a Dark View - A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist has
provided the firm's hedge-fund clients with a particularly gloomy economic
outlook and suggestions for how these traders can take advantage of the
financial crisis in Europe. […]
Alan Brazil—a Goldman strategist who sits on the firm's trading desk—argued
that as much as $1 trillion in capital may be needed to shore up European
banks; that small businesses in the U.S., a past driver of job production,
are still languishing; and that China's growth may not be sustainable.”

September is begonnen. Ben benieuwd of ‘remember
to be back in September’ dit jaar gaat werken.

Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.

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